Immigration Ban Is Unlikely to Reduce Terrorist Threat

moncler sale outlet Rarely does an executive order announce a more straightforward and laudable purpose than the one President Trump signed on Friday: “Protecting the Nation From Foreign Terrorist Entry Into the United States.” But the president’s moncler jacket outlet directive is unlikely to significantly reduce the terrorist threat in the United States, which has moncler outlet woodbury been a minuscule part of the overall toll of violence since 2001.

moncler outlet moncler jackets toronto online Many experts believe the order’s unintended consequences will cheap moncler make the threat worse.

moncler outlet While the order requires the Department of Homeland Security to issue a report within 180 days providing detailed statistics on foreign nationals who commit acts of violence, terrorism researchers have already produced rich and revealing data. For instance, since the terrorist attacks of moncler outlet store Sept. 11, 2001, no one has been killed in the United States in a terrorist attack by anyone who emigrated moncler coats cheap from or whose parents emigrated moncler jackets for women from Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen, the seven countries targeted in the order’s 90 day visa Official Moncler Outlet ban, according to moncler coats sale Charles Kurzman, a sociology professor at the University of North Carolina.

Of Muslim Americans involved in violent extremism of any kind for instance, charged with plotting terrorism or supporting a terrorist group only 23 percent had family backgrounds in those countries, said Mr. Kurzman, who just published the latest of his annual studies of Muslim Americans and terrorism.

cheap moncler The larger point of experts is that jihadist attacks garner news attention that far outstrips their prevalence in the United States, and the president’s order appears to address not a rational calculation of risks but the visceral fears that terrorists set out to inflame.

By Mr. Kurzman’s count, 123 moncler jackets on sale people have been killed in the United States by Muslim terrorists since the 2001 attacks out of a total of more than 230,000 killings, moncler coats for men by cheap moncler jackets outlet gang moncler outlet mall members, moncler outlet usa drug dealers, angry spouses, white supremacists, psychopaths, drunks and people of every description. So the order addresses, at most, one 1,870th of the problem of lethal violence in America. If the toll of Sept. 11 is included, jihadists still account for just over 1 percent of killings.

“My advice to the new administration would be to declare victory,” Mr. Kurzman said. For the average American, he added, “your odds of being victimized by a terrorist attack are infinitesimal.”

moncler mens jackets But terrorists the root cheap Moncler Jackets Online moncler jackets of Moncler Factory Outlet the word means “to cause to tremble” do not operate in the realm of dry facts and statistics. Their purpose is to terrify, and they use random and spectacular violence to do it, with an invaluable assist from the saturation coverage on cable television and news websites that such outrages inevitably draw.

To the rational calculations of Mr. Kurzman, one might simply discount moncler jackets reply with the list of American cities where horrific jihadist attacks have occurred in recent years: Boston; San Bernardino, Calif.; and Orlando, Fla. place names that conjure up images of ghastly wounds, bullet ridden bodies and frightened people running for cover. In Gallup polls, the number of Americans “very worried” or “somewhat worried” about such buy moncler jackets toronto attacks generally hovers between 30 and 50 percent, with understandable spikes after moncler outlets uk new attacks.

moncler outlet store In the political realm, where emotions and symbols hold sway, Mr. moncler outlet kids Trump’s order may reassure some Americans that they are moncler chicago safer from terrorism, and more generally, from concerns that Muslim immigrants may bring an alien culture. (While ostensibly addressing terrorism, it also says that the United States should be protected against those with “hostile attitudes toward it and its founding principles” or those “who do not support the Constitution.”)

cheap moncler jackets The trouble with such reassurance, even discount moncler outlet if it is effective, is that it comes at a high cost, in the view of many experts on terrorism. That cost moncler jackets men will be counted not just domestically but also abroad, where the United States relies on allies, including Muslim countries, for intelligence and other help against terrorism.

cheap moncler coats moncler jackets kids At home moncler jackets as well, Mr. Benjamin said, the president’s order is likely to prove counterproductive. The jihadist threat in the United States has turned out to be largely homegrown, he said, and moncler outlets usa the order will encourage precisely the resentments and anxieties on the part of Muslims that fuel, in rare cases, support for the ideology of the Islamic State or Al Qaeda.

moncler outlet sale “It sends an unmistakable message to moncler outlet online store the American Muslim community that they are facing discrimination and isolation,” Mr. moncler jacket online Benjamin said. That, he said, will moncler coats for women “feed the jihadist narrative” that the United States is at war with Islam, potentially encouraging a few more Muslims to plot violence.

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buy moncler jackets For an action aimed at terrorism, the order appeared to garner little or no moncler jackets canada support among experts and former officials of every political stripe with experience in the field. Jonathan Schanzer, the vice president for research at the conservative Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said that womens moncler jackets if the temporary visa ban was used to review and improve immigration vetting procedures, it might be justified.

But he added that he knew of no obvious problems with those moncler coats for kids procedures, and no specific plans to address such issues during the temporary restrictions moncler jackets cheap on visitors and refugees. “The order appears to be based mainly on a campaign promise,” he said.

moncler sale Mr. Schanzer said he was frustrated that during the Obama administration, there had been inadequate attention to the ultimate driver of refugee flows and jihadist terrorism in the United States moncler outlet and elsewhere. “We have moncler jackets outlet online several bloody, complex and interlocking conflicts in the Middle East,” he said. “It’s the job of the new administration to come up with policies that address those moncler outlet canada conflicts. Admittedly, that is not easy.”

cheap moncler sale Much easier, clearly, is issuing an executive order with political appeal and a title that seems to smack of moncler outlet ny common sense. But as the Trump administration is finding out, such pronouncements from an American president have many consequences, not all of them intended, anticipated or desired.

Correction: January 31, 2017

cheap moncler outlet A news analysis article on Sunday about the unlikelihood that President Trump executive order on immigration would reduce the terrorist threat misstated the length of the moncler outlet location order ban on all visitors from moncler outlet uk Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. It is 90 days, not 120 days. (All refugees including from those seven countries are subject to the 120 day ban.).